Optimizing the configuration of plasma radiation detectors in the presence of uncertain instrument response and inadequate physics

We present a general method for optimizing the configuration of an experimental diagnostic to minimize uncertainty and bias in inferred quantities from data. The relies on Bayesian inference sample posterior using physical model experiment instrument. mean squared error (MSE) samples relative true values obtained high fidelity (HFM) across multiple configurations is used as optimization metric. demonstrated common problem dense plasma research, use radiation detectors estimate properties plasma. optimize set filtered photoconducting diamond MSE X-ray spectrum, which we can derive like electron temperature. In self-consistently account uncertainties instrument response with appropriate prior probabilities. also develop penalty term, acting soft constraint optimization, produce results that avoid negative instrumental effects. show compare two other reference demonstrate improvement. respect total spectrum reduced by more than order magnitude our optimized compared cases. extract HFM, showing overall improvement temperature, peak radiated energy.